Every box in a full eight-dog field starts on an even 12.5% chance. It does not stay that way. Measured across 190,659 races where all eight runners are accounted for.
ALL TRACKS · WIN RATE BY BOX
18.6
14.1
11.7
11.0
10.8
10.0
10.7
13.0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Gold dashed line marks the even 12.5% chance.
That national shape is an average of 129 different track-and-distance combinations, and it hides more than it shows. The same box number is a different proposition at every venue:
Albion Park · 395m
RAILS
2,529 races · box 1 beats box 8 by +14.7 pts
24.4
15.7
11.8
9.9
10.6
8.7
9.2
Early speed decides it
Rank every runner by its time to the first split. The one in front wins 51.8% of the time — against an even chance of 12.5%. Last to the split wins barely one race in a hundred.
POSITION AT FIRST SPLITWIN RATE
1st — leading
62,368 runs
51.8%
2nd
61,487 runs
19.9%
3rd
58,839 runs
The same 520m, a different trip
A winning time only means something once you know where it was run. Median winning times over 520m span 1.08s between the quickest and slowest venue — several lengths of daylight.
Sale
1,530 wins
29.80s
Richmond
842 wins
29.91s
Ladbrokes Q2 Parklands
907 wins
29.95s
Trainers — last 12 months
Ranked on the last twelve months of racing, so the record and the prize money describe the same period. Career totals shown for context.
#
Trainer
Wins 12m
Starts 12m
Prize 12m
Career wins
1
Mark Delbridge
329
1,757
$1,526,250
2,656
2
Tracie Price
274
Current track records
ASHBURTON
295m
2015
16.95s
by Mickey Tee
ASHBURTON
520m
2016
30.03s
by Kava Blu
ASHBURTON
645m
2017
38.26s
10.8% of races — roughly one in 9 — are decided by less than half a length.
9.7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Healesville · 340m
REVERSED
886 races · box 1 beats box 8 by -9.9 pts
9.4
10.7
9.7
9.1
12.6
13.9
15.2
19.3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
10.1%
4th
58,713 runs
5.7%
5th
58,186 runs
3.5%
6th
57,093 runs
2.3%
7th
56,448 runs
1.4%
8th
54,178 runs
1.0%
Complete eight-dog fields where every runner has a recorded split.
Cannington
4,081 wins
30.11s
Wentworth Park
14,210 wins
30.18s
Geelong
579 wins
30.21s
Nowra
2,845 wins
30.25s
Dapto
5,689 wins
30.25s
Albion Park
9,239 wins
30.33s
Bathurst
1,805 wins
30.34s
Lismore
2,457 wins
30.44s
Wanganui
2,199 wins
30.51s
Christchurch
2,685 wins
30.64s
Cranbourne
3,544 wins
30.66s
Ipswich
5,057 wins
30.88s
Median winning time. A longer bar means a faster track.
